Almost five years ago the Golden State Warriors broke a record that seemed impossible to break. They won 73 of 82 games in an NBA season. That means that out of an insane 82 games, they lost only 9. This team was led by a second straight MVP season by Stephen Curry, who is now widely considered the greatest shooter of all time. He averaged 11 three point attempts per game and made, on average, five of them. Lamelo Ball is shooting 13 a game and is making only 4 and a half.
The National Basketball Association as a whole is shooting too many three-pointers. Twenty years ago, in 2005, teams averaged a total of 15.8 three point attempts per game. Not only is Lamelo Ball by himself shooting almost the same amount, but if you double that number you still aren’t at the amount of shots today. Double that and add 5, you still aren’t there. Teams are shooting a whopping 37.5 threes in a game. This is a real problem in the association. Teams are making almost 14 of them a game, which is 42 points. And despite this revolution in three point shooting, teams still shoot them at the same percentage, about 35-36 percent. “Players and teams are attempting far more threes, but, somehow; despite all the attention put on the long ball, NBA players haven’t got much better at shooting them” -sports analyst Grayson Anderson. What’s crazier though, is that while the 3 point percentage hasn’t changed, the 2 point percentage went from about 45% to above 50%. So why are three-pointers being shot so much more? My take is that three-pointers have become worth far too much.
The best teams in the NBA right now compared to just 10 years ago directly relates to how many threes are being made. The team widely favored to win the championship again, the Boston Celtics, are shooting an insane 51 threes a game. Fifteen more than the next highest. They’re making only 19 of them, which is just around league average. However, that is 57 points. Teams that shoot more threes simply win games because league wide every team shoots at about 37%. There’s no difference between the best and the worst offenses anymore, aside from making shots. The best and worst teams all do the same thing when, 20 years ago, the Lakers won games by getting the ball in the paint and the Pistons would win games by their lockdown defense. Today though, basketball has turned into “who can make more threes?”
Two years ago, in the NBA finals, the Celtics had won game one simply because they made more threes than the other team. With 5 minutes left in the game, the Celtics went on a 20-5 run where they made 5 threes. 15 of their 20 points came from threes. This simple shot causes blowouts, runs that cement the outcome of the game before it even really gets started, and offenses with no identity.
Other analysts are picking up on this too, like Ryen Russilo. He was speaking on his podcast, the Ryen Russilo Podcast, two years ago after the Phoenix Suns lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs. “As I’m watching the game I’m going: ‘Phoenix is so much better than them tonight.’ But, this was the argument for, maybe actually an argument against three-pointers in the value. The absurd value they have in relationship to the rest of the ways you can score..every time I felt like dallas was about to get blown out they found a way to survive with three-pointers… the separation between two teams was so obvious and watching it, ‘but hey we have this, we have this other thing that we can do. We’re just going to keep shooting threes the entire time.’ This is not breaking news, this is what the game is…”
The NBA needs to turn away from its three point revolution. It is ruining the league.
